Market Maniac Headquarters / Fed Watch
Fed funds rate · live Fed WatchWhat the data implies for policy.
The market-implied path, and the reading a central-bank watcher would take from the releases on the Macro Watch page — weighed independently, not copied from the Fed's own statements.
Weighed across 41 releases
HAWKISH
Data has been tightening: sticky core inflation and firm labour data argue against near-term cuts, while real yields hold at restrictive levels. Market pricing leans toward a higher-for-longer path than a month ago.
Fed funds rate (upper bound) · live4.00%
Fed Watch
Policy, not just prices.
Gold reacts to where policy is heading, not only where it is. This page turns the Macro Watch releases into a policy stance, so the connection between data and the Fed's next move is explicit.
- Independently computed from public release data
- States its target range and midpoint explicitly
- Links back to the releases that moved it most